Adwords Bidding Analysis Help
File Format
This program requires several columns of data from the uploaded file, depending on the tool in use. Columns are separated by tab characters (TSV), or comma characters (CSV), and the file's first line is ignored (it contains column headers). All tools use the seventh column which contains "conversion" for clicks that result in conversions, or anything else if they do not.
For the day parting tool, the date and time of a click must be in the second column.
The negative and positive keywords tools uses the referer (11th column) and keywords (16th column).
The geography targeting tool uses the IP address (8th column).
Data Caching
Uploaded files are cached on the server so you can change the analysis and display options without uploading the same file repeatedly. Under the Advanced options, you may upload additional files to include in the analysis. After you upload a file, it is copied to a randomly generated name that only your browser is given (in a cookie). Other users cannot access it. As long as your browser saves the session cookie, the cached files will be available to you.
You may manually delete the cached files when finished by clicking on the "(delete)" link. Or you may upload a new file to overwrite the old ones. Orphaned files are periodically flushed automatically by the server.
Reported Statistics
The following statistics are reported for each cell (whether grouped by day/time, keyword, or geographic area):
- Conversions: simply the raw count of the number of conversions occurring in the cell.
- Clicks: the total number of clicks for the cell.
- Conversion Rate: conversions divided by clicks for the cell gives the conversion rate, or proportion of clicks that are valuable.
- Conversion Ratio: the ratio of the cell's conversion rate to the overall conversion rate, which is computed from all clicks and conversions in aggregate. The ratio is reported as a percentage of the overall average, so that "100%" means the conversion rate for this cell is the same as the overall rate. This is the main statistic to use when adjusting Adwords bidding, subject to the discussion of statistical significance below.
- Δ Confidence: a measure of the significance of any difference in conversion rates for the cell, as described further below. Specifically, it is the probability or certainty that the cell's Conversion Ratio really is different from the overall average.
These tools are primarily for determining where to spend your PPC advertising dollars, and in what proportion. The Conversion Ratio is reported as a percentage of the overall average so you can directly compare it to your PPC bids. However, not all ratio differences will be statistically significant because of noise (randomness) in the data. Noise is worse for cells with few clicks.
For example: suppose the overall conversion rate is 10%, and there are two cells on the day parting tool with 16% conversion rates. Their conversion ratios will both be reported as 160%. Should you increase your bids during both times? It depends on the significance of the result.
Suppose the first cell has 32 conversions out of 200 clicks (32/200 = 16%), but the second has only one conversion out of six clicks (also 16%). For the first, the probability that 16% of the clicks would have converted if the true conversion rate during that cell were the average 10% is very low (0.005). In other words, we say our Confidence is over 99% that the conversion rate in this cell really is higher than average.
For the second cell, it is only 53% or even odds that the conversion rate is no different than the average. We can confidently increase our bid during the first interval, but should ignore or collect for more data on the second one.
The computed Δ Confidence is used to adjust the display of the Conversion Ratios to make it easier to identify groupings that truly deserve more PPC ad dollars. The table below summarizes the display styles and their meanings, and are shown as on the day parting tool.
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Cells with confidence values > 82.4% are most significant and are depicted with a darker background and larger, bold numerals. The color shows whether the Conversion Ratio is higher (green) than average, or lower (red) than average. |
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Cells with confidence values between 75% and 82.4% are moderately significant and are depicted with a light background and bold numerals. |
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Cells with confidence values between 66.7% and 75% are least significant and are depicted with numerals of normal size and weight, but colored as above. |
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Cells with confidence values < 65% are considered the same and are shown in grey whether higher or lower than average. |
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Cells that have been filtered because they contain too few clicks (see Options) are shown as 100% of the average conversion rate, but with a ^footnote to indicate they have been filtered. |
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If no data was available for the cell, it also shows as 100% of the average, but with a *footnote to indicate the lack of any clicks to analyze. |
Note that the display emphasizes the significance of the result, and not its magnitude. Without filtering, a cell with 1 click and 1 conversion (rate = 100%) may display as 700–1000% depending on the average conversion rate. But it will nevertheless be considered the same and displayed in grey because of the paucity of data for the cell.
Day Parting Options
Choose these basic options in the day parting tool when uploading or analyzing a file:
- Display by:
- Day of Week: Select this to report the statistics by day of week. Otherwise all days are aggregated together.
- Hourly Grouping: Select the number of hours to group together for display in the grid. If unselected (or 24 hours is chosen), daily data are grouped together. Note that choosing small hourly intervals affects the statistical significance of the results because less click data is available for each cell.
- Data source:
- Use cached data: After a file is uploaded, its data may be used without uploading it again (as described in Data Caching).
- Upload data from a file: Select a local file, formatted as described in File Format, for uploading and analysis. The file replaces all previously uploaded files.
Advanced options are also available for fine-tuning the data analysis and presentation:
- Upload additional data from a file: Additional files may be uploaded for inclusion in the analysis and results. Each may be deleted individually.
- Show: conversion ratio, clicks, conversions, conversion rate, or statistical confidence values, as described in Reported Statistics below. This determines the primary display in the results grid. The other data are also visible by moving the mouse over the grid.
- Filter by clicks: To make the results easier to inspect visually, you may wish to filter out cells with few clicks. The Conversion Rate and Ratio in such cells may not be significant anyway, as described in Reported Statistics. A value of at least 10 is recommended to reduce noise in the display and ensure that the computed confidence values are valid.
Hourly shift: When grouping statistics by hourly intervals, you may use this option to adjust the shift, or offset of the grouping.
For example: the default 12-hour groupings are 0-11 and 12-23 (midnight to noon, and noon to midnight). But if you receive the majority of your traffic during the work day, it will be diffused equally into both groups. Selecting an offset of 7 hours would group 7am-7pm and 7pm-7am together and would be more likely to show a statistically significant difference.
In this example, all conversions occur during "work hours," but the default 12-hour grouping splits the work day in half. The results are still significant in this synthetic example, but the computed ratios are diluted. 
Shifting the 12-hour grouping by 7 hours more accurately portrays both the significance of the result and its magnitude, giving a better understanding of what traffic converts the best.
Negative Keyword Options
Choose these basic options in the negative keyword tool when uploading or analyzing a file:
- Data source:
- Use cached data: After a file is uploaded, its data may be used without uploading it again (as described in Data Caching).
- Upload data from a file: Select a local file, formatted as described in File Format, for uploading and analysis. The file replaces all previously uploaded files.
Advanced options are also available for fine-tuning the data analysis and presentation:
- Upload additional data from a file: Additional files may be uploaded for inclusion in the analysis and results. Each may be deleted individually.
- Filter by clicks: To make the results easier to inspect visually, you may wish to filter out cells with few clicks. The Conversion Rate and Ratio in such cells may not be significant anyway, as described in Reported Statistics. A value of at least 10 is recommended to reduce noise in the display and ensure that the computed confidence values are valid.
- Filter by words: You may limit the negative keyword phrases shown to those with at least this many words in the phrase.
- Filter by Δ-confidence: You may limit the keywords shown to those with a confidence value that meets or exceeds this threshold.
- Filter by ratio: You may limit the negative keywords shown to those with a conversion ratio of at most this threshold.
- Show double-quotes: To make cutting-and-pasting into Adwords easier, you may show the negative keyword sub-phrases surrounded by double-quotes.
Positive Keyword Options
Choose these basic options in the positive keyword tool when uploading or analyzing a file:
- Data source:
- Use cached data: After a file is uploaded, its data may be used without uploading it again (as described in Data Caching).
- Upload data from a file: Select a local file, formatted as described in File Format, for uploading and analysis. The file replaces all previously uploaded files.
Advanced options are also available for fine-tuning the data analysis and presentation:
- Upload additional data from a file: Additional files may be uploaded for inclusion in the analysis and results. Each may be deleted individually.
- Filter by clicks: To make the results easier to inspect visually, you may wish to filter out cells with few clicks. The Conversion Rate and Ratio in such cells may not be significant anyway, as described in Reported Statistics. A value of at least 10 is recommended to reduce noise in the display and ensure that the computed confidence values are valid.
- Filter by conversions: You may limit the positive keywords shown to those with at least this many conversions.
- Filter by words: You may limit the positive keyword phrases shown to those with at least this many words in the phrase.
- Filter by Δ-confidence: You may limit the keywords shown to those with a confidence value that meets or exceeds this threshold.
- Filter by ratio: You may limit the keywords shown to those with a conversion ratio equal to or higher than this threshold.
- Show double-quotes: To make cutting-and-pasting into Adwords easier, you may show the keyword sub-phrases surrounded by double-quotes.
- CPA payout: If a dollar value is entered here, the maximum CPC bid is calculated for each positive keyword phrase and shown in a second column of the results. For example, if the CPA payout is $50 and a particular phrase has a conversion rate of 10%, then on average any CPC bid over $5 will lose you money.
Geography Targeting Options
Choose these basic options in the geography targeting tool when uploading or analyzing a file:
- Conversion rate comparison: You may include only cells with conversion rates that are lower or higher than the average, or include all results.
- Granularity of results: Show results for any combination of: Country, Region/State, City, and Postal code. Results will be grouped in the table by country, region, and then city, and may be collapsed or expanded for ease of interpretation. Parent elements that do not satisfy the filtering criteria are listed for navigation, but their results are not shown.
- Data source:
- Use cached data: After a file is uploaded, its data may be used without uploading it again (as described in Data Caching).
- Upload data from a file: Select a local file, formatted as described in File Format, for uploading and analysis. The file replaces all previously uploaded files.
Advanced options are also available for fine-tuning the data analysis and presentation:
- Upload additional data from a file: Additional files may be uploaded for inclusion in the analysis and results. Each may be deleted individually.
- Show: conversion ratio, clicks, conversions, conversion rate, or statistical confidence values, as described in Reported Statistics. This determines the primary display in the results grid. The other data are also visible by moving the mouse over the grid.
- Filter by clicks: To make the results easier to inspect visually, you may wish to filter out cells with few clicks. The Conversion Rate and Ratio in such cells may not be significant anyway, as described in Reported Statistics. A value of at least 10 is recommended to reduce noise in the display and ensure that the computed confidence values are valid.
- Filter by Δ-confidence: You may limit the results shown to those with a confidence value that exceeds this threshold.
- Filter by ratio: You may limit the results shown to those with a conversion ratio of 100% ± this threshold (depending on whether higher, lower, or all results are selected).